Nuclear or biological raids ‘likely by 2013'

Ewen MacAskill Washington

An investigation by the US Congress into weapons of mass destruction published last week made a chilling prediction of terrorists mounting an attack using biological or nuclear weapons within the next five years.

The six-month enquiry mentioned Pakistan as one of the likeliest sources of an attack. The report, by the bipartison Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction, said “unless the world community acts decisively and with great urgency, it is more likely than not that a weapon of mass destruction will be used in a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013 …. Terrorists are more likely to be able to obtain and use a biological weapon than a nuclear weapon”.

President George Bush said the report highlighted the greatest threat facing the US and was “dangerously real”. Barack Obama's administration, which will prioritise tackling the the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, was briefed on Capitol Hill about the findings. The commission was led by former Democratic senators Bob Graham and Jim Talent. Graham told reporters that the commission's reports included recommendations which, if implemented, could diminish the threat. They included the creation of a White House post focusing on proliferation and more emphasis on diplomatic efforts.

The team's remit ranged from lack of security at US biological labs to the safety of nuclear stockpiles in Russia . The report concluded that the risk from biological or nuclear weapons was higher than sceptical analysts have so far suggested. The analysts had pointed to the complexity of transporting such weapons and the limitations of a nuclear “dirty” bomb, whose radius of damage is minimal compared to missile-delivered warheads.

The report disagreed, saying: “No mission could be timelier. The simple reality is that the risks that confront us today are evolving faster tghan our multi-layered responses … in our judgement America 's margin of safety is shrinking, not growing.” ….

Extract from The Guardian Weekly, 12 Dec. 2008.